Southwest Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
The committee fundraises to help elect conservative House lawmakers. It recently published a “target list” of 26 Democrats that it hopes to unseat next year as a way to increase the GOP’s narrow majority in the House.
Last year, Gluesenkamp Perez split the vote for her Southwest Washington seat, winning reelection despite the district also going to President Donald Trump. It was the second time the moderate Democrat had won. She flipped the 3rd District from Republican control in 2022.
Two Oregon Democrats whose districts were Republican targets in past elections, Reps. Andrea Salinas and Janelle Bynum, did not make the NRCC list this year.
The biggest threat to Gluesenkamp Perez, according to Ben Gaskins, a political science professor at Lewis and Clark College, may simply be the makeup of her competitive Southwest Washington district, which is split between Republicans, Democrats and independents.
“Structurally it’s a very swingy district. In a good year for Republicans, it’s very possible that she would lose no matter what she does,” Gaskins said. “And definitely there’s some insurgency on the left that she has to be aware of and pay attention to.”
Southwest Washington Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, in Longview, Washington on Oct. 27, 2022. Gluesenkamp Perez is one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections, according to the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Sheraz Sadiq / OPB
Gluesenkamp Perez’s success in 2024 was largely based on her promises to represent her district as a moderate Democrat and emphasize local interests over partisan divides.
In early March, she voted with Republicans to censure Rep. Al Green when he interrupted President Trump’s congressional address. More recently, she voted with Democrats to oppose a continuing resolution to keep the government open. In a statement about her vote, she said the spending bill would cut funding to federal agencies like the U.S. Geological Survey and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In a release this week, the NRCC described Gluesenkamp Perez as an “extreme” member of her party.
“Out-of-touch Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez continues to put the radical far-left agenda ahead of Washington families. House Republicans are on offense and will hold Perez accountable; she will lose her seat next year,” NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez said in the statement.
In the last two election cycles, Gluesenkamp Perez beat Joe Kent, a Republican who aligned himself with President Trump’s agenda and who many saw as too extreme. Kent was later nominated to be the Trump administration’s director of the National Counterterrorism Center.
Gluesenkamp Perez’s biggest reelection threat may come from a more moderate candidate, according to Mark Stephan, associate professor of political science at Washington State University, Vancouver.
“I think that she is the most vulnerable to a Republican candidate who is basically kind of like a version of her, but on the Republican side,” he said.
Parties in the minority typically do well in midterm elections, while those in power usually lose seats, Stephan said. This could be especially true in 2026 given the rapid-fire controversies of the second Trump administration.
According to Gaskins, Gluesenkamp Perez could capitalize on that opposition, so long as her moderate politics don’t alienate fellow Democrats.
“There is such a hunger among the Democratic base for someone who is going to stand up and fight Donald Trump, that it’s possible there is some kind of left-wing Tea Party that really tries to get out the moderate squishes of the party in favor of fighters,” he said.